The battle for second place in Los Angeles’ mayoral primary is tightening as newly counted mail ballots continue to favor City Councilmember Nithya Raman, fueling speculation that she could still overtake Spencer Pratt and secure a spot in the November runoff against incumbent Mayor Karen Bass.
The latest batch of late-arriving ballots showed Bass receiving 11,748 votes, or 36.9% of the vote. Raman captured 10,664 votes, accounting for 33.5%, while Pratt received 6,433 votes, or 20.2%.
Those results represent a notable overperformance for Raman compared to the pace she needs to catch Pratt in the overall count.
Election analysts tracking the race noted that Raman’s benchmark against Pratt in late ballots was roughly 11.2%. Instead, she outperformed that target by approximately two percentage points, allowing her to continue chipping away at Pratt’s lead.
While Pratt remains ahead in the overall tally, the margin has steadily narrowed as additional mail ballots have been processed.
The shifting dynamics have also prompted updates from election forecasting groups.
The Public Sentiment Institute announced Friday that its latest modeling now gives Raman a slight advantage in the race for second place.
“Our website has been updated. Nithya Raman has a 51.3% chance to move on to the runoff vs. Bass, who our modeling has already confirmed,” the organization posted on social media.
Bass has effectively secured her place in the November general election, leading the field with 35.1% of the vote according to the latest official returns.
The central question now is whether Pratt can hold onto second place or whether Raman’s continued strength among late-arriving ballots will allow her to leapfrog him before the final count is completed.
California’s notoriously slow vote-counting process has kept the outcome uncertain.
Unlike many states that report nearly complete results on election night, California allows vote-by-mail ballots postmarked by Election Day to arrive for up to seven days afterward. Counties then have weeks to verify signatures, process provisional ballots, and complete their official canvass.
Los Angeles County election officials estimate that hundreds of thousands of ballots remain to be processed, though it remains unclear how many of those ballots come from Los Angeles city voters eligible to participate in the mayoral contest.
Only about 62% of ballots cast within the city had been counted as of Thursday, leaving a substantial number of votes still outstanding.
Political observers note that California’s late ballots have historically favored Democratic and progressive candidates.
Several recent California races have followed a similar pattern.
Political analysts note that voters who submit ballots later in the process often skew younger, more urban, and more progressive than those whose ballots are counted first. Those demographic groups generally align more closely with Raman’s political base.
At the same time, analysts caution that overcoming Pratt’s statewide lead remains a difficult challenge.
Because remaining Democratic ballots are likely to be split between both Bass and Raman, Raman must not only outperform Pratt among outstanding ballots but also significantly outperform Bass to erase the deficit entirely.
Some election experts continue to view Pratt as the favorite to secure the second runoff spot, though confidence in that prediction has weakened as additional results have been released.
The latest late-ballot totals are likely to intensify scrutiny on every new update from county election officials over the coming days.
For Pratt, the goal is simple: maintain enough of his current advantage to survive the late-ballot surge.
For Raman, the path remains narrow but increasingly plausible, election watchers have noted.
